Dissertation
Are EVs the future of transport?
Counting the cost of the economic, political and environmental impact of electric car technologies
Plan:
Introduction: what drew me to undertake research in this specific area, why did I choose a
topic, what my previous knowledge was, how I decided upon my question, how this
project increased my knowledge and understanding, outline how I chose the
limits of my area of study (sticking to gov pol)
Research Part 1:outline research
I did and where I found my sources of information.be honest about the range,
reliability, and quantity of the research. explain why I mainly used secondary
sources.
Research Part 2: describe in
detail what I learned from each piece of research including; economic factors, environmental factors, Joe’s the government forcing these cars onto the road as well as acceptance and safety and accurately
reference where the info came from
main areas I have learned from
this topic.
conclusions and further
research that is needed. Don't feel like you have to answer for everything to
do with electric cars.
Are EVs the future of
transport?
Dissertation: I chose the topic of electric vehicles as I have a hobby of motorsport but I haven't followed any EV motorsports. and I have previous employment in a car garage, I also had many questions about electric vehicles that I wished to find out for example how it will affect the earth and how much will they cost or are they even safe? The main reason for me however was why are the government forcing the change and how are they going to create legislations that will eventually see the end of ice cars being legal on our roads which leads to the following question how are they going to support the infrastructure needed to support the publics switch to the electric vehicles?
My previous knowledge on the
subject was varied as I had a basic understanding of the technical aspects of
the cars themselves meaning how they work including some of the safety factors,
however, I had very little knowledge of the environmental effects on the Earth
as well as little knowledge of the government plans for the integration of EV's
in the future and the economic factors that will affect the length of time the
switch will need to take.
I decided upon my question by
focusing on what specific topics I wanted to research for my benefit such as
the laws that are going to be put into place around the ZEV mandate and also
the affordability of the change and how it's going to cost the public and
government to build the infrastructure to facilitate these vehicles on our
roads. I created the question generally so that I can argue for and against it,
as some facts might make you see how it's not all positive for these cars that
will revolutionize the transport industry and I wanted to highlight these
factors too, I wanted to focus on a range of factors that would overall justify
whether or not these cars should be the future or if the technology is yet too
underdeveloped and we should hold off on forcing these cars onto the roads such
as the environmental cost that will diminish our natural earth resources as
well as the safety of the people who may have already chosen to switch to electric.
The project increased my
knowledge and understanding as I found from my research into economic factors that the
price of an EV is much higher than that of an ICE car however the operating and
maintenance costs are far cheaper and the government is giving grants to help
afford these new cars but from my research I found leasing these cars is the cheapest way
to get your hands on these new vehicles and that the guarantees that come with
these cars are excellent typically covering (5-8) years or 100,000 miles on the
electric motor and battery components. Shockingly the environmental cost of making the batteries is high however when recycled they
waste 300x less than Ice vehicles emit in gases over their lifetime this is set
to improve with technological advancements over the next 10 years decreasing
the amount of material needed to build the batteries by half. I also researched how these autonomous (self-driving vehicles) manage to drive themselves (with
radar, internal maps, actuators, predictive modelling, object discrimination,
hard coded rules, and obstacle avoidance algorithms all aiding the car in
following traffic regulations and object avoidance) and if technology improves
may end up lowering the number of fatal car crashes on our roads. I mainly
increased my understanding when I found detailed research on the government
policies around the sales of EVs and the rules manufacturers must follow to not
face fines and sanctions from the government as this shows how the governments
are forcing the change not only by forcing manufacturers to change but also
incentivizing them with credits they can use to avoid penalties, this research
also detailed that the UK's charging infrastructure is a barrier to the mass
adoption of the EVs and that infrastructure providers now must catch up with
the commitments of vehicle manufacturers and turn commitments into investments. (Cleantechnica, S.Hanley 2021)
I chose the limits of the area
of my study to the government policies that will change the motor industry and
the factors that would persuade me to sell my car and switch to an EV because
if I chose to research every single factor around electric vehicles then I
would have too large of research to analyze to make conclusions so, therefore,
I feel I chose the most relevant to anyone researching this topic.
for this question, I chose to use secondary research into online articles published by different organizations such as The RAC as well as our own Government legislation website with mixed viewpoints for the reason that with this topic I couldn't exactly test the car myself as it would have been too time-consuming and I felt that with the sources I found my information from such as The BBC and The Guardian that they are trustworthy, reliable and detailed enough to analyze and come to conclusions. Though it should be noted there is a gap in research due to an extended period of ill health. The main areas of my research cover economic considerations of the EV and for this, I chose to use information from the RAC.co.uk website as they are a well-known company in the motoring world whose mission is to help motorists on the road by providing roadside assistance and disseminating information on staying safe on the road so the source should be reliable and has a wide range of information. When I chose to research environmental factors I looked at a study conducted by Transport and Environments into the mining damage and pollution produced by an automobile when it is built, this source is reliable as T&E is an Non Government Organisation dedicated to promote sustainable transport in Europe, therefore, they would provide trustworthy in-depth data. Then I researched Technological factors taking information from a study from the union of concerned scientists, it is reliable as it has a date and was published by a nonprofit science advocacy created in 1969 by MIT students who work on transport-related policy issues and want low pollution infrastructure and vehicles. They published a policy brief in February 2017 that analyzed the drawbacks and advantages of self-driving technology and that offers seven guiding principles for decision-makers, businesses, and other stakeholders. I chose to then research acceptance of the mass adoption and the paramount safety of these cars by looking at the verge (a technology news website operated by Vox) and reading two articles with publish dates written by Andrew J Hawkins an author working for the verge he has written two very detailed and useful articles where he has created polls to find out for himself how people are feeling about switching to an electric vehicle and whether people are accepting the change that is being forced on them. The final area of my research covered what government laws have been pushed through so these cars are mass-adopted, for this research I looked at topgear.com which is a site based on car news that has been funded and researched by the BBC this shows it's reliable and it was very useful in identifying how the government is forcing the change but also incentivizing it to encourage mass adoption. (RAC, 2022)
When researching economic considerations of EVs I learned some people would buy an EV due to their fascination with the tech but oth,ers may buy for the ethical desire to go green. The purchase price of EVs on avg is higher than that of an ICE car however, EVs are cheaper to operate and maintain and the cost of road tax is exempt, currently the cheapest new electric car costs £21,000 after the deduction of government-funded purchase grants. Buying secondhand is the much cheaper option at the risk of battery ware as a new battery is the same cost as a write-off in most cases, in general EVs have a long life span but over time they will gradually decline in capacity and range. Leasing these cars is a much cheaper option instead of buying them outright as the cost of these cars is a drawback with a top-of-the-line Porche Taycan amounting to an eyewatering £160,000. I also learned about the EV guarantees which typically cover the battery and its components for 5-8 years or 100,000 miles with a performance guarantee of 70% or more with the rest of the car being warrantied it depends on the manufacturer ranging from 3 and 60,000 miles up to 7 years and/or 100,000 miles. I found charging rates are applied based on the location of the charger and the size of the battery which will be increased in price and power will be restricted at times such as school holidays when millions do the 1% journeys over 100 miles and i also found drivers who can recharge at work can charge for free and not be obligated to pay. This restriction of chargers at peak times will be largely significant as currently there are only 52602 chargers in the whole UK which is a 44% increase from 2023 however majorly short of the 300,000 target. In terms of the future as well I learned that the EV industry still lacks informed and well-educated awareness compared to internal combustion engines but awareness should grow with popularity so the EV industry must take steps to build a well-informed customer base. a drawback I found was the range of the EVs is still a major drawback to the mass adoption of these vehicles as consumers will be hesitant to switch until the E-range consistently matches or outperforms the ICE car's capabilities. The time it takes to charge these vehicles is an issue that is still yet to be solved with both the vehicle itself and the charging station causing restrictions and whilst filling your car up with fuel is a lot faster then it will be hard to persuade the switch as the ice car has more convenience in that aspect as well as this as more EVs fill up the streets in more populated locations owners without a drive will be inconvenienced by having to charge up before going home due to more chargers being occupied locally. I learned from a recent survey that 67% of potential buyers said costs were their top concern but as running costs are set to fall the initial cost of the Electric vehicles will rise until they sell at a comparable rate to ICE vehicles. With this external factor of sales playing a part, it might cause EVs to be out of most peoples price range. Another thing I learned from this source was that the ever-rising cost of gas might make ICE vehicle users forced to switch to electric. What I crucially learned from this source is that EVs are going to benefit the planet therefore the government are funding the infrastructure and planning manufacturing and sales incentives for the EV industry to thrive and takeover the ICE vehicles in the automotive industry leading to mass adoption, but it is a very high cost to better the world and it’s a case of whether us as the public can afford the change ourselves.(Guardian,J.Bartholomew,23/12/23) (Guardian,J,Jolly,9/12/23)
From looking into the Transport & Environment study into environmental factors, I learned an incredibly important factor that the mining process for the minerals that make up the battery is very energy intensive however only 30kgs of that metal would be lost when recycling an electric car battery pack whereas an ICE car will produce 300-400 times more than that in gas emissions in its lifetime as well as this petroleum extraction and refinery are also energy intensive this is a real issue as the typical ICE car uses 17,000 litres of petrol in its lifetime. I also learned that it is predicted that in 10 years, technological advancements will reduce the amount of lithium needed for a battery by half and the cobalt amount will be decreased by 75% whilst nickel use will be reduced by 5% and by 2035 it is thought that recycling may provide more than a fifth of lithium and nickel as well as 65% of cobalt required to manufacture a new battery. Most importantly I learned that there will be adequate battery production by 2025 to supply the demand for EVs which has been an issue since the advent of EVs and it is important as currently, the EVs are not as ecologically friendly as we are being led to think. A recent daily mail article reported the environmental impact of many EVs will never be felt as they never hit mileage targets due to people constantly upgrading to the next new model leaving many unused EVs on sales forecourts therefore is this boom to mining neccesary? this is reinforced by the DIRTY CAR EV act which measured the emissions from manufacturing of EVs that highlighted half the emissions from the lifetime of the car come from energy used to make the battery as every EV attributes 30,000 pounds of co2 gas into the atmosphere before it reaches the showroom not to mention as the energy is made from a coal fire plant, the equivalent to every mile driven in in CO2 is 15 ounces which is 3 pounds more than ICE cars. The high demand for minerals for these batteries to power the carshas caused boom style mining in countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo that currently have very poor human rights laws which has lead to poor working regulations and child labour. (Lambert, F, 2022) (Forbes, T,Doshi,2/8/2020) (The Guardian,JJolly,9/12/23)
From analyzing The Union Of
Concerned Scientist's study into the technological factors of EVs I analysed the futuristic autonomous vehicles and I learned there are 5 stages of
autonomy (self-driving capabilities) although they vary by vehicle the
technology is becoming more prevalent and could potentially change our whole
transport system. In stage 0 the human controls everything and in stage 1 the
car can either regulate the automatic brakes or cruise control one at a time,
stage 2 provides at least two simultaneous automated functions such as steering
and acceleration but human participation is still required, in stage 3 the
vehicle can operate all safety critical tasks in some circumstances however the
driver is still required to take control, in stage 4 the car is autonomous
sometimes but not always and stage 5 is fully autonomous. The vehicle achieves
this autonomy by compiling an internal map of the environment using radar
combined with sensors. I found that the actuators of the vehicle which
control acceleration braking and steering are instructed by software that
analyses inputs to create a route and execute instructions with the help of
predictive modelling, object discrimination, hard-coded rules, and obstacle
avoidance algorithms to aid the program in following traffic regulations and
avoiding obstructions however if the car faces uncertainty it will alarm the
driver to take over. the costs to this technology are still speculative further
information is required to evaluate the effect on drivers and public health
with cybersecurity being a critical issue as these cars could potentially save
lives as they are most likely going to be less error-prone than humans. There could be a potential of mass employee reduction to people who work as
drivers, however a positive to self-autonomy is that those who can't drive due
to old age or disability could potentially get around easier. Another highlighted issue here is the obsolescence of technology in the future for example the pre 2016 Nissan Leaf and e-NV200 car has lost major value and has left customers enraged because Nissan gave no warning to owners that their 2g control modules in their car that allows their phone app to connect has been shut off as the 2g network has been shutdown by the government, this left owners shocked as they no longer have this key feature of their car which many said was the incentive behind their purchase, leading owners to state they wont buy another Nissan due to the lack of notice as they are stuck with a lower value EV which will be harder to swap or sell in order to change EVs now that their car doesn't do as they bought it to do. (Union of Concerned
Scientists, 2018)(BBC,I,Jones,4/3/2024)
From my research into
acceptance and safety I understood there is a widespread mistrust around the autonomous
EVs as 48% of respondants in Partners for Automated Vehicle Education's survey
said they would never ride in a self driving taxi and that 20% more people
believe that autonomous vehicles will never be secure, the guardian state half of EV drivers fear their battery will die leaving them stranded, suprisingly only 34% of people are confident that the positives will outweigh the negatives
and only 18% of respondents are eager to join the autonomous vehicles waiting
list, collectively these figures provide a negative image for the future of
autonomous vehicles but only public acceptance and willingness to use the
technology will affect its success an issue from this research I found that
approximately a little more than half of those surveyed had advanced driver
assistance systems such as blind spot recognition and emergency stopping and
with this familiarity and acceptance of the technology it is fair to assume
that it may have lead to a more favourable result toward self driving vehicles. The scepticism and distrust are based on lack of experience for
instance most responders said they were unaware of any deaths involving
autonomous technology, such as the tragic Arizona Tesla accident and any other
deaths involving Tesla autopilot. There was also an incident with a
self-driving Uber where a pedestrian was run over whilst the backup driver
allegedly was filming, after the incident Uber halted testing and some safety advocates
claimed that it demonstrated that the system was not yet secure enough to be
tested on public roads this caused a decline in public trust for the EVs and
public trust is necessary for autonomous' cars success. This shows that
customers don't have to learn about the severe failures to have animosity
against the vehicles. I realized that the more self-driving vehicles out there
the more inclined people will be to trust them however it has been proven that
the industry has overly optimistic about the readiness of these vehicles. I
also learned that the Society of Automotive Engineers' five degrees of
automation, which serve as the industry benchmark has been under fire from
detractors for being too broad and potentially unsafe. the majority of experts state
we need a more effective way to discuss self-driving vehicles. The most
important thing I learned from the two sources is that data sharing between
businesses should be increased as businesses think sharing could reveal trade
secrets but it could improve the time it takes to perfect the autonomy of these
vehicles and therefore create the trust needed to accept and adopt these EVs (Hawkins A.J, 2020)
Finally, in my research into how
the government has made changes to the law to allow for the mass adoption of
EVs, It was found the government proposes to compel zero-emission vehicles,
which lays out minimum sales goals and sanctions for automakers that don't
fulfil them. According to the government, the automakers must offer 22%
all-electric vehicles starting in 2023 to meet deadlines for the EU's ICE
vehicle ban, they must sell 52% of their cars by 2028 and 80% by 2030. I also
learned that the government anticipates that by 2035, all new vehicles will be
electric only. Although the ZEV mandate is not yet legally binding, automakers
could face fines of £15,000 per unit if they failed to meet their target if it
were to become so. The incentive behind this is that the government is offering
transferable credits they would give to the automakers to transfer points to
less environmentally friendly companies to avoid penalties. The mandate states a zero-emission vehicle must provide 0 carbon dioxide and no other types
of greenhouse emissions, it must also qualify for a minimum range of 120 miles
as well as comply with warranty requirements to provide a predictable driving
experience for customers. the most crucial information from this source was the
UK's charging infrastructure is the biggest barrier to the uptake of electric
vehicles. and in the end, for the mandate to be successful, infrastructure
providers must invest to catch up to vehicle manufacturers. The ZEV mandate is
a vital indicator of charging infrastructure needs in the coming years,
accessibility and convenience of charging remain the primary obstacles to the
adoption of electric vehicles. The ZEV mandate gives a clear direction and
should give infrastructure investors the confidence to commit and enable the
future of electric vehicles on UK roads. the government must maintain the
plug-in van incentive in the initial years to encourage businesses to switch.
(Dow.C, 2023)(UK Gov, Department of transport, 28/9/23)
The main areas I have learned
from this topic are that the initial costs of the EV are a primary concern for
buyers as prices are very high and are set to get even higher until they start
to sell the EVs in line with the sales of ICE cars however the government is
incentivizing the switch by offering the plug-in van incentive for businesses
as well as the purchase fund grant for the personal purchase of an EV, but we
have to consider running costs and the fact the government made these cars
exempt to road tax to persuade more people to switch. I found the power
grid and the world's ambitious clean energy goals are external factors that
play a part in the government's incentives for pushing these cars. I also found
that the thing most likely to eventually eradicate our ICE vehicles is
increasing petrol and diesel prices as they will become unaffordable for daily
use and therefore the public will have to turn to EVs to cut that cost. The
main findings environmentally were that the EVs waste 30kg of metal when
recycled but the ICE vehicles burn 300-400 times that in gases throughout their
lifetime. I also learned that over the next 10 years EV battery waste will be
reduced dramatically. On a larger scale, the benefit of the EV to the planet
could potentially be huge as society continues to shift towards renewable
energy sources and this benefit is expected to lead to more EV consumption.
When looking at the most important technological factors I found that further
information is required in terms of autonomous vehicles as their effect on
drivers, the economy, and public health are yet to be evaluated, I also found
self-driving. cars may help lower the number of accidents on our roads since
they are less error-prone than humans. The cyber security of these vehicles
however is still a major issue, another major issue is the amount of driving
jobs that will be lost when driving becomes 'effortless', and as a result,
public transport funding will be further decreased. An important factor of
self-driving technology is that it is likely to increase the miles travelled
annually however transport emissions will decrease if the vehicles are
connected to a clean energy grid with the potential to drop lower if
self-driving cars make it possible for more people to travel together. The key
findings from my research into acceptance and safety were that 48% of
respondents declared they would never ride a self-driving taxi or ride-sharing
vehicle 68% of people believed EVs will never be secure and only 34% of
respondents claimed the positives outweigh the negatives for the EVs, the
majority of respondents were in favour of a vehicle that will facilitate
driving whilst the driver is always in full control. Another finding was that
for people to be inclined to trust these vehicles then they must see them more
out on the public roads as people are unaware of the safety of these vehicles
as it has not yet been seen by many of our current road users, as well as
this an investor in the manufacturing of these vehicles claim that there is a
misconception that the technology is near perfection, it is not, however, there
has been a steady improvement over time. The most crucial point from this
research was that data sharing between businesses has to increase to advance
these vehicles however businesses are hesitant as they believe they might
reveal trade secrets. The most important thing I learned in my research to find
how the government are taking action in pushing these cars onto the road is
that the EU have a ban in place for ICE vehicles and the government wants to
meet this so the government are incentivising EV manufacturers and potential
buyers into producing and purchasing these EVs by giving the manufacturers
transferable credits to avoid the legal penalties of not meeting the ZEV
mandate and customers purchase grants to make these cars slightly more
affordable to speed up the process of the mass adoption. they have also
incentivised businesses who use vans to join the E-van incentive where they can
have the van to use for work for a lower cost. I also learned the main ideas of
the ZEV mandate that state a zero emissions vehicle must produce no greenhouse
gases of any kind and must have a minimum 120-mile range with a predictable
driving experience for its customers. The main point that kept recurring was
that the charging infrastructure is a barrier to the uptake of these vehicles
in the UK and that for the mandate to be a success the infrastructure providers
must take action and invest to keep up with the commitments of EV
manufacturers.
With regards to whether EVs are
the future of transport, the answer is yes however full-scale mass adoption is
further in the future than I originally anticipated due to the mass public
distrust because of the lack of public knowledge and testing/demonstration for
example the economic factors show that the initial cost of these vehicles is
currently the highest priority issue in regards to the uptake of these vehicles
and with the prices being predicted to rise until they sell at the levels of
ICE vehicles then even with the government grants, no roads tax and other
incentives it might be longer than anticipated for the full-scale mass adoption
of these vehicles if at all until it either becomes law or petrol and diesel
prices are unaffordable unless, of course, you want to switch to help meet the
worlds ambitious clean energy goals. Environmentally I have concluded that EVs
will overall benefit the environment increasing EV consumption if we continue
to shift toward renewable energy sources and dont overproduce EVs resulting in unused vehicles which means a negative carbon footprint as most emissions come from the creation of the battery to power the car. From my research of technology I have
determined that more research is required into autonomous vehicles to find
their effects on the drivers and public health however if they continue to
improve the technology then they could potentially cause lots of employed
drivers to lose their jobs and therefore decrease public transportation
funding, however positively it could decrease the number of accidents on our
roads whilst increasing miles and lowering emissions. Concluding research from
safety and acceptance factors I found there is still high distrust in the
security of EVs due to the lack of safety research that has been done and the
misconception of near perfection with the majority of people wanting to be in
full control of their vehicle at all times and still not all people believe the
benefits outweigh the drawbacks but this could be affected if the majority
don't trust the vehicles. From my research into how the government are pushing
the EVs onto our roads, I concluded that the government are incentivising these
vehicles and giving purchase grants to encourage the switch as current road
users are still hesitant,as the UK are desperate to meet the demands of the
EU ICE vehicle ban, I also concluded that the government are using the ZEV
mandate to force manufacturers to make the switch by imposing penalties to
manufacturers who don't meet the criteria of sales of EVs in the future and for
the mandate to be successful, they must improve the charging infrastructure to
keep up with commitments of manufacturers, therefore, there won't be full-scale
mass adoption of EVs until the people accept them a better option than ICE cars and the infrastructure has been built to support the
charging by improving the power grid to deal with peak times at times such as school holidays. But before the mass adoption and the subsequent increased wait on charge times, if you have the money get your hands on an EV as not only have 91% of EV owners said they would never go back to an ICE vehicle but you could take full advantage of all the benefits such as convenient, cheap and fast charging whilst the grid isn't busy whilst also benefitting from major cost savings with no tax or fuel to pay and as it looks there will one day be mass adoption of EV's as long as they reduce the need for components in each singular battery, therefore when they become the only choice and again rise in price, you will already be in the market with no extra costs to pay.
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