Final Factors. R6

 

March 2024

Environmental and economic impact of electric vehicle adoption in the U.S - IOPscience

Reliability and usefulness 

This source can be seen as highly reliable as it is a peer reviewed paper in an environmental academic journal. Its sources and references are clearly stated and its author is a leading expert. 

Dealers back government 2035 date for ICE sale ban (motortrader.com)

GOV incentive

Since undertaking my research there have been changes to the legislation I researched set by the UK government. 

From the 100% ban on ice vehicles by 2030. 

To 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans sold in Great Britain set to be zero emission by 2030, increasing to 100% by 2035.

gov website exact changes to legislation here

Government sets out path to zero emission vehicles by 2035 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

the government today (28.9.23) has set out the percentage of new zero emission cars manufacturers will be required to produce each year up to 2030, following the prime ministers proportionate and pragmatic decision to delay the ban on new diesel and petrol cars from 2030 to 2035.

the zero emission vehicle mandate unveiled means the country will have the most ambitious regulatory framework for the switch to electric vehicles in the world this requires 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans sold in great Britain to be zero emission by 2030 increasing to 100%  by 2035. the 2035 end sale date puts the UK in line with other major global economies, including France, Germany, Sweden and Canada.

Do electric cars really produce fewer carbon emissions than petrol or diesel vehicles? | Business | The Guardian

Emissions.

Summary: evs too costly 

range not good enough (driver anxiety)    

greater fire risk 

green wash (not as green as were led to believe

battery mining

Key quotations, facts and statistics 

us Florida senator Rick Scott said there was ample evidence to suggest that EV's are not as clean as people are being led to believe and folks deserve to know the truth.

he and other republican colleagues introduced the suggestively named dirty car EV act which stands for "directing independent research to yield carbon assessment reading electric vehicles" which tried to call for analysis of the carbon footprint of vehicles.

a recent daily mail article reported that "the environmental benefit of electric cars may never be felt because many EV's will never hit mileage targets as owners upgrade to never models. Leaving swathes of used electric cars sitting unwanted on garage forecourts 

Reliability and usefulness 

the guardian newspaper is a very trustworthy source with millions of readers across the globe with it being one of the top 3 most trusted news sources in the uk by its readers according to a research poll conducted by ipsos mori in 2018 that proved 84% of readers trust what they see in its digital news content.

electric cars 2024 Making the switch to electric vehicles: ‘The biggest shock was the huge savings’ | Electric, hybrid and low-emission cars | The Guardian    

Location and infrastructure

there are 52602 public charger points for EV's in the UK which has increased 44 percent from 2023 but well below the 2030 target of 300,000.

nearly half of ev drivers still suffer range anxiety where they are scared to go too far or else they may become stranded.

Ev purchases are on avg more expensive than petrol or diesel cars upfront, a significant roadblock for lower income households.

Expensive cars were cited in September by the prime minister, Rishi Sunak for delaying the ban on petrol and diesel cars from 2030 to 2035, a move which attracted scorn for a U-turn on a popular green policy.

Is it right to be worried about getting stranded in an electric car? | Business | The Guardian

range anxiety and causes

There is no doubt that range anxiety is real. Polling by Bloomberg Intelligence in September found that range anxiety and the closely related concern over finding a charger were the two biggest fears cited by people across Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK.

the average American household covers 50 miles a day, and only 15% of households do more than 100 miles in a typical day. In Europe average driving distances are generally lower. UK government data shows 99% of car journeys are less than 100 miles.

The energy company Octopus says that an average EV range in the UK is 211 miles, and more expensive models can reach 300 miles. If you can charge overnight (when energy prices are cheapest) then there is simply no need to worry about typical usage.

For longer trips, drivers are dependent on the charger network. The International Energy Agency says the number of public charge points grew by 55% worldwide in 2022 to 2.7m. That is rapid growth, and means that in places like the UK or western Europe longer trips are gradually turning into a non-issue, with quick toilet break doubling as top up time. Edmund King, president of the AA, said 2.5% of its EV customers’ breakdown callouts are for flat batteries, and he expects that to fall to 1%, in line with the proportion of people who run out of petrol or diesel.

People who live in highly populated areas and cities who don't have driveways will struggle in the future as it is more effort to find charge points near home that aren't occupied, including prices and tariffs on parking this means it will become more of a hassle to wait until your car fully charges on the way home from work because you cant get it charged for the next day near to your home.

There is also potentially going to be problems with the rapid chargers on longer journeys as the public charging network may struggle to deal with peak periods of energy use such as school holidays when millions of people are doing the 1% of journeys that go over 100 miles.

Quentin Wilson a former top gear presenter turned campaigner at Fair Charge stated that the number of ultra rapid chargers needs to be "much, much more or else you'll get people starting to queue" however the issues with the electricity grid are holding back progress to add more rapid chargers in the U.K  

Getting rid of range anxiety is tricky because it relies on the charging network and the drivers use pattern (how the EV is driven) and the government cant let up on adding more charging stations or these anxieties will become a reality for more people making the switch to EV's

The general belief is that should you only carry out the occasional 200 plus mile journey you are very unlikely to be caught with no charging station in ares such as the UK and western Europe however there is still a chance should you not plan a route through a charging station.

Reliability: Ofcom held a survey where 80% of respondents rated The Guardian trustworthy ranking it joint number 1 with Observer among regular readers they also found it to be 81% accurate in its news stories. It was found to be perceived as trustworthy as the BBC here in the U.K.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68426263

changing technology

summary : The firm have said the app is stopping due to the 2G network being shutoff in the U.K customers are angered by this obviously as it is a key feature of the leaf and e-NV200 cars made before 2016 which is approximately 3000 vehicles.

Owners are furious that even though they pioneered the EV takeover and backed these cars right back when it wasn't a promise these vehicles were taking over these older vehicles have been fitted with 2g control units which communicate with the app the company responded saying all features will be accessible through the cars navigation system. the owners reached out to the BBC with their dissatisfaction station they would've expected 6 to 12 months to sort an alternative and that a key feature is going to be lost for them. they then state that the mobile app allowing to see cheaper charge times was a major selling point in their decision to purchase the vehicles. owners say they are reluctant to buy another Nissan due to the lack of notice given, this is important for the future because one it is obsolescence where the company has technology they are choosing shut down and they didn't inform the buyers that it was going to happen before they purchased their vehicles leaving them stuck in their position as the Ev's cost is so high it isn't easy to just swap.

are they trying to change the car market model of new car every 5-10 years are they making cars to last us forever.

Do people commit to 100% electric or do they keep their ice car just in case or for extra long journey?     91% Of EV Drivers In The UK Would Never Go Back To An ICE Vehicle - CleanTechnica The source is reliable as it has clear in depth factual reporting. CleanTechnica.com provides news and information about the future of clean technology. Their claims are that their "mission is to guide a clean tech revolution through industry coverage and journalism. Zap Map is an app that shows EV chargers nearby and calculates before hand the cost of recharging the vehicle using public chargers as well as the cost of home charging based on electricity rates and time of use. In November it asked 2000 EV drivers including battery and hybrid EV owners whether they might consider going back to an ice vehicle. surprisingly 91% said no chance, 9% weren't sure and less than 1 percent said yes. owners of the Volkswagen id.3 the BMW 3 series plug in and the Kia Nero plugin got a 100% satisfaction rating from its drivers, and the big driving force toward the change tesla got a 96% satisfaction rating on the model 3. the lowest level of satisfaction was the Nissan leaf at a still extremely high 90%. the challenge for the automotive industry is for the sales persons to be knowledgeable enough to present the benefits to their customers as more of the challenges with owning and using the EV begin to fall away. while the challenge is to initially convince people to switch this data shows that once people have then they don't look back, which is positive news for manufacturers that are heavily investing in EVs and clean technology.  while people whom haven't switched worry about range they should be aware the number of public charging points continues to improve. they should also value their journeys wont be several hundred miles long meaning electric power is the clean and cost effective option.

The Dirty Secrets Of ‘Clean’ Electric Vehicles (forbes.com)

Tilak Doshi Aug 2, 2020

Emissions

The most important component of an EV is the lithium ion rechargeable battery which relies on critical minerals, after tracing the source of these materials it is clear there is clearly issues from the mining and processing of these minerals. a united nations report warned that the raw materials are highly concentrated in a small number of countries where environmental and labour regulations are extremely weak. Therefore the ev market is forcing a boom to production in the Democratic Republic of Congo which is the supplier for 2/3 of the worlds cobalt output. The mines used for the minerals which make up 1/4 of congos production is dangerous and employ child labour. this has led to ev companies avoiding direct sourcing from the mines. for example Tesla said it aims to remove reputational risks associated with sourcing minerals from countries such as the DRC where it is corrupted.

Just for the UK roads to be fully EV we would need 2x the annual global production of cobalt, 3/4 the worlds production of lithium carbonate, almost the entire worlds production of neodyium aswell as more than half the worlds copper production from 2018. in terms of the world we would have to go far past the known reserves.

The environmental and social impacts of this boom style mining (over mining) of the minerals, some of which are highly toxic, in countries with corruption and bad human rights this can only be imagined. These clean and green EVs are far from the reality of what has happened mining for the minerals to produce EV batteries.

EV supporters could argue that these environmental and social issues of human rights violation and pollution associated with mining in many third world countries can be ignored by the richer nations, however it is a questionable trade off, potentially saving the world by reducing carbon emissions. 

These carbon emissions are overstated according to a life cycle study comparing conventional ice vehicles to EVs, this proved the overstating the benefit of EVs as they found half the lifetime emissions of EVs come from the energy used to produce the EV mainly from mining and processing minerals needed for the battery. compared to an ice vehicles production which accounts for 17% of the cars lifetime carbon emissions.

When an EV hits the showroom it has already attributed 30,000 pounds of co2 gas into the atmosphere where as ice vehicles only add 14,000 pounds per car. the way EV emissions are measured once on the road is the type of power used to recharge its battery. for example coal fire plants that have made electricity to charge your car will lead to about 15 ounces of co2 emission every mile it is driven, 3 ounce more than an ice car.

summary: UN report mining of minerals to make L-I batteries causing boom to production in countries such as the DRC with weak environmental and labour laws we would need 2 x current output of cobalt for just the whole UK to switch to ev if the power grid could handle the energy usage. not to mention going past the known mineral reserves. not as green as sellers would like you to think? half the life time emissions of the is the energy used to produce the ev mainly mining and processing materials. 

Now i have found all the factors i wished to research i can begin to plan and write my dissertation using all my sources as notes and synthesise these factors as a whole to conclude whether Ev's are the future of transport.